James Murray

The reality is that businesses can never have complete certainty over the policy landscape five, 10 or 15 years hence, no more than they can have certainty over which government will be in power, or at what level corporation tax will be set. In addition, if you look closely at the degree of certainty that currently surrounds climate change policies, the complaints about a lack of long-term clarity look ever more hollow.

Taking the UK as an example, the overarching Climate Change Act and accompanying carbon budgets should all but guarantee that carbon emissions will fall by more than 34 per cent by 2020, while more specifically all major political parties have signalled support for renewable energy subsidy schemes that will definitely be in place for around two decades. Similarly, at an EU level, binding targets aim to cut emissions by 20 per cent, enhance energy efficiency by 20 per cent and ensure 20 per cent of energy comes from renewable sources by 2020. Even the much maligned ETS will be tightened from 2013; we do not know precisely what the carbon price will be, but the odds are it will rise significantly.

Admittedly things are a little different in the US, where President Obama's approval ratings are languishing, climate legislation is bogged down in a hostile Senate and the prospect of a climate sceptic Palin presidency from 2012 remains a surreally plausible obstacle for any business seeking long-term certainty over American climate change policy.

However, even without legislative certainty businesses in the US, and indeed everywhere, increasingly believe predictions of soaring oil prices and raw material shortages post-recession will prove accurate. Equally, the fundamental climate risks that accompany a warming world pay no heed to policy decisions, and regardless of the high-profile problems at the University of East Anglia and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, they remain as certain as science ever can be.

It all begs the question: what, exactly, is uncertain here? The direction of travel is clear, even if the precise route and pace of the journey remain a little hazy.

Businesses are right to call for greater clarity and coherence in climate change policy, particularly at an international level. But those firms that use the excuse of uncertainty to delay action to tackle climate change are as guilty of futile time-wasting as that teenager dreaming of life with Angelina Jolie.